U.S. Treasuries and the Yield Curve | Weekly Market Commentary | September 3, 2019

We recently reduced our year-end forecast range for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from 2.5–2.75% to 1.75–2%. This significant reduction reflects what we consider the many somewhat curious aspects of the domestic and global macroeconomic environments. Trade uncertainty, low inflation, geopolitical risks, monetary policy, and relative valuation all played a role in our decision. To be sure, delayed prospects for a U.S.-China trade agreement remain central to our economic and market projections in the coming months.

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